The influence of crude oil price on the production and operation risk of chemical industry enterpris
In recent years, the impact of crude oil price decline and epidemic situation has been superimposed. The price of related products in the chemical industry has fluctuated dramatically, and the risk of production and operation of industrial chain enterprises has increased dramatically. As the upstream production concentration of the national energy and chemical industry, the risk management ability of the chemical enterprises in the northwest region has attracted much attention.
The relevant director of the Industrial Development Department of dashangsuo told reporters that the northwest region is rich in gas, oil, rock and other resources. As the upstream production concentration of the national energy and chemical industry, it is the focus of market pricing. However, since this year, the risk of production and operation of chemical enterprises has increased dramatically. In March this year, polyolefin prices fell sharply, logistics and transportation were not smooth, and it was difficult for enterprises to return to work, and small and medium-sized enterprises were mostly facing losses. In April, with the spread of the global epidemic, polyolefin prices fluctuated significantly, especially with the sharp growth of mask demand, the price of raw material PP fiber for mask production soared. In the special period, the entity enterprises generally face the problems of high inventory, difficult sales, poor operation of industrial chain, high cost of raw materials and cash flow shortage.
Zhang Xiujuan, senior analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told reporters that the overseas epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled at present, and it is expected that some plastic products export orders in the later period will not be expected to be better, and the export to domestic trade will be an important choice for many downstream products enterprises.
In Zhang Xiujuan's view, the large-scale export of plastic products to domestic trade will form certain pressure on the domestic market. Meanwhile, if the resulting foreign demand weakens, the subsequent export of domestic plastic products will also be under great pressure. It is expected that the domestic chemical industry will continue to bear pressure and the industrial chain enterprises will continue to face operational risks before the global epidemic situation is significantly alleviated 。
"The contradiction between supply and demand will be the most obvious one in the plastic industry in the second quarter. Under the weak global economic operation environment, the rescue policies of various countries will appear intensively, but whether these stimulus policies can form strong support or long-term support for the plastic market will ultimately be judged according to the global epidemic situation. " Zhang Xiujuan's analysis.
Recently, Shen Yi, deputy manager of Beijing Silian Hangzhou branch, shared the profit and loss of futures market to hedge the profit and loss of spot market in the "online training meeting on risk management of Northwest plastic enterprise" co organized by Shaanxi Plastics Industry Association, saying: "the core of traditional hedging theory is to establish the opposite position of the same commodity in the futures market to avoid the position of spot market Spot price risk. "
However, in addition to traditional hedging, non-standard basis trading and price protection trading can also be used.
Specifically, non-standard basis transaction refers to the price difference transaction among various varieties within polyolefin, that is, to judge the change trend of price difference between a non-standard variety and a standard product, and carry out two opposite hedging operations. The core is to judge the difference between the supply and demand of the two products in the future.
In the aspect of insured trading, Shenyi mentioned that trading enterprises purchase goods from the upstream at the absolute price of futures + basis in a certain period in the future, and the upstream enterprises purchase call options at the same time. If the price rises in the future, the profit from the call option will be returned to the upstream after settlement according to the settlement price stipulated in the contract; if the price falls in the future, the settlement will be made according to the original contract price to ensure the profit stability of the upstream enterprise. The same is true for downstream enterprises.
In addition, Lu Shuxiang, a senior researcher of Huaxin, also introduced the application of options in the industry. In Lu Shuxiang's view, compared with futures, first of all, the cost of option capital occupation is less, which can lock in the lowest selling price and the highest purchasing price.
Lu Shuxiang, for example, said that when the futures price rises sharply, the positions that are protected by the futures end float and lose a lot, and if the insurance is pursued frequently, the enterprise will take a greater risk. If the futures are used for hedging, the sales price will be locked at 6350 yuan / ton, and the income of possible price rising will not be obtained. If the option is used for hedging, the expiration value of the option will return to zero, and the customer will pay a royalty of 200 yuan / ton, but the possibility of setting the selling price at 8000 yuan / ton is reserved.
The relevant director of the Industrial Development Department of dashangsuo told reporters that the northwest region is rich in gas, oil, rock and other resources. As the upstream production concentration of the national energy and chemical industry, it is the focus of market pricing. However, since this year, the risk of production and operation of chemical enterprises has increased dramatically. In March this year, polyolefin prices fell sharply, logistics and transportation were not smooth, and it was difficult for enterprises to return to work, and small and medium-sized enterprises were mostly facing losses. In April, with the spread of the global epidemic, polyolefin prices fluctuated significantly, especially with the sharp growth of mask demand, the price of raw material PP fiber for mask production soared. In the special period, the entity enterprises generally face the problems of high inventory, difficult sales, poor operation of industrial chain, high cost of raw materials and cash flow shortage.
Zhang Xiujuan, senior analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told reporters that the overseas epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled at present, and it is expected that some plastic products export orders in the later period will not be expected to be better, and the export to domestic trade will be an important choice for many downstream products enterprises.
In Zhang Xiujuan's view, the large-scale export of plastic products to domestic trade will form certain pressure on the domestic market. Meanwhile, if the resulting foreign demand weakens, the subsequent export of domestic plastic products will also be under great pressure. It is expected that the domestic chemical industry will continue to bear pressure and the industrial chain enterprises will continue to face operational risks before the global epidemic situation is significantly alleviated 。
"The contradiction between supply and demand will be the most obvious one in the plastic industry in the second quarter. Under the weak global economic operation environment, the rescue policies of various countries will appear intensively, but whether these stimulus policies can form strong support or long-term support for the plastic market will ultimately be judged according to the global epidemic situation. " Zhang Xiujuan's analysis.
Recently, Shen Yi, deputy manager of Beijing Silian Hangzhou branch, shared the profit and loss of futures market to hedge the profit and loss of spot market in the "online training meeting on risk management of Northwest plastic enterprise" co organized by Shaanxi Plastics Industry Association, saying: "the core of traditional hedging theory is to establish the opposite position of the same commodity in the futures market to avoid the position of spot market Spot price risk. "
However, in addition to traditional hedging, non-standard basis trading and price protection trading can also be used.
Specifically, non-standard basis transaction refers to the price difference transaction among various varieties within polyolefin, that is, to judge the change trend of price difference between a non-standard variety and a standard product, and carry out two opposite hedging operations. The core is to judge the difference between the supply and demand of the two products in the future.
In the aspect of insured trading, Shenyi mentioned that trading enterprises purchase goods from the upstream at the absolute price of futures + basis in a certain period in the future, and the upstream enterprises purchase call options at the same time. If the price rises in the future, the profit from the call option will be returned to the upstream after settlement according to the settlement price stipulated in the contract; if the price falls in the future, the settlement will be made according to the original contract price to ensure the profit stability of the upstream enterprise. The same is true for downstream enterprises.
In addition, Lu Shuxiang, a senior researcher of Huaxin, also introduced the application of options in the industry. In Lu Shuxiang's view, compared with futures, first of all, the cost of option capital occupation is less, which can lock in the lowest selling price and the highest purchasing price.
Lu Shuxiang, for example, said that when the futures price rises sharply, the positions that are protected by the futures end float and lose a lot, and if the insurance is pursued frequently, the enterprise will take a greater risk. If the futures are used for hedging, the sales price will be locked at 6350 yuan / ton, and the income of possible price rising will not be obtained. If the option is used for hedging, the expiration value of the option will return to zero, and the customer will pay a royalty of 200 yuan / ton, but the possibility of setting the selling price at 8000 yuan / ton is reserved.
