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It is predicted that the overall price of chemicals will decrease by 5% in 2020
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According to the Research Report "chemical industry outlook 2020: the boom of upstream raw materials and the good structure of downstream materials" published by CICC on November 28, looking forward to 2020, the overall price of chemicals in 2020 is expected to decline by 5%, and the upstream raw materials related sectors will continue to be affected by the increase in supply and the slowdown in demand, with the fundamentals weaker than 2019; the downstream materials related sectors are expected to benefit from electronics, new energy vehicles The demand of prosperous industries such as agriculture and the low cost of upstream raw materials boosted.
According to its analysis, at present, the comprehensive price index of business and social chemical industry is 744, with the average price down 16.5% year on year, only 20% higher than the lowest price in the past five years. Among them, MDI, glycol, methanol, acetic acid, caustic soda, DMC and other varieties fell by more than 30% compared with 2018. In the first three quarters of 2019, the gross profit rate / net profit rate of listed chemical companies fell by 4.3% / 2.0% year on year. According to the prediction of the bulk group of CICC, the average price of crude oil and coal will fall by 12% and 8% in 2020, and the chemical industry as a whole will continue to be negatively affected by the increase of supply and the deceleration of demand. It is expected that the overall price of chemicals will fall by 5% in 2020, and the index is close to the historical low point.
However, the Agency remains optimistic about structural opportunities within the sector. It said that the sub industries such as MDI, vitamin, private refining and other industries with good profits in 2020, as well as the new materials whose demand is determined to increase, are still worthy of attention.
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